Will you pass your challenge?
Put in your prop challenge or your own account. See your odds, and the risk per trade that gives you the best ones.
Use your firm's numbers. Two-step challenge? Run each phase.
Every weekday before the NY open: your size for today's volatility, plus Nasdaq and gold levels in your broker's prices. Free. Never signals.
How to read the result
The same trader with the same edge can pass most of the time or fail most of the time. The only thing that changes is the size. Risk too much and a normal losing streak hits the max loss or the daily limit before the target. Risk too little and the challenge runs out of days.
The left box is your odds at the size you entered. The right box is the size, with your win rate and R:R unchanged, that passes most often in the simulation. Read the full test in our note on risk per trade.
Questions
How does the challenge calculator work?
It simulates 4,000 challenges with your numbers: account size, risk per trade, win rate, reward to risk, trades per day, profit target, max loss and daily loss limit. Each trade wins or loses at random with your win rate, for up to 60 trading days. The share of challenges that reach the target before a loss limit is your odds of passing.
What does 'with the best size' mean?
The calculator tries a range of risk sizes with the same edge and reports the one that passes most often. Too large blows the account on a normal losing streak; too small runs out of time.
Does it work for two-step challenges?
Run each phase on its own with that phase's target and limits. Your overall odds are roughly the two pass rates multiplied.
Can I use it for a personal account?
Yes. Choose Personal account and enter the loss at which your broker would close you out. It shows your risk of blowing the account and the largest size that keeps that risk under 5%.
Is this a prediction?
No. It shows what your inputs imply. Real win rates drift, losses can come in clusters and some firms count open losses against the daily limit, so treat the result as a guide to size, not a promise.
Tomorrow's levels and size, before the open.
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